The government still expects growth of 3.9 percent
In recent months, the deterioration in economic matters in the country has increased, so that the official figures indicate that the Mexican economy is in recession.
This follows from the information Cyclical Indicators System (SIC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), reports the CNN web Expansion.
“If a careful reading of the figures is INEGI, Mexico’s economy is in recession for a few months in late 2013 would have gone from the deceleration phase (started in July 2012) to the recession, quotes Average Gerardo Esquivel, a researcher from the College of Mexico (Colmex).
According to the specialist, it meets the criteria set out in SIC-developed based on the methodology used by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), to determine that the economy is in recession phase.
“We anticipate strong growth in the U.S. and increased public spending in Mexico take out the country out of this recession as early as the second quarter of 2014. A loose monetary policy and a small leakage derived from the reform momentum should also help,” said by Carlos Capistrán, chief economist for Mexico at Bank of America Merrill Lynch report.
Will they will modify the expected growth?
However, detailed CNN Expansion, despite the odds, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit Mexico remains optimistic to ensure that both exports and government spending have been strengthened, and the end of May will be when deciding whether amending or not the annual growth target of 3.9 percent.
Esquivel, meanwhile, considered very difficult for the GDP reaches a top three percent growth. Anticipates a recovery could begin in the second half of the year, given, would end the year at just 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the digital version of the Mexican newspaper Excelsior argues that said the Mexican economy is in recession then decreases after more than nine months and placed below the level of 100 that represents the trend of long-term growth of economic activity.
The definition of recession two consecutive quarters of negative growth is a common way used by the political class, but “is more a rule than a formal criterion approach,” said Jonathan Heath Media economist.
For the Bureau of Economic Research, which defined recession through a different methodology, it is “a significant decline in economic activity spread throughout the entire economy, lasting more than a few months and that is normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and retail sales and wholesale, “said Excelsior.
Meanwhile, insecurity, weak domestic market and fiscal policy will be factors in GDP growth barely reach 3%, revealed the Bank of Mexico specialists, according to El Universal.
The minimum wage, no recovery
Meanwhile, the minimum wage in Mexico shows no recovery in the last decade, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
The report “Covenants for equality. Towards a sustainable future “makes it clear that Mexico is among the few countries that have failed to reverse the loss of minimum wage recorded from the international financial crisis of 2008-2009, said El Universal in another part informative.
Mexico and Venezuela are the only countries where the minimum wage showed a decline in 2012, according to ECLAC.
“While in the mid-90s sustained decline that had been experiencing since the 80 stopped, the last decade is ruled by its relative stability,” the average appointment to the Commission on the situation of the minimum wage in Mexico.